Ten things you don’t want to happen in 2012, but which probably will

My predictions for 2012

1. After the Arab Spring and the Islamist Winter will come Armageddon Summer. It might happen as early as spring but that season has been bagged already. At Islington dinner parties, on the BBC and in the Guardian — after cursory acknowledgement has been made of all the dead innocents — the conclusion will be reached that Israel is to blame. As if its very existence wasn’t provocation enough, Israel has consistently — and deliberately — mocked its poor, struggling neighbours with its outrageous displays of democracy, accountability and economic growth.

2. Boris will make some spectacular gaffe. Perhaps he will suggest, outrageously, that…

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One thought on “Ten things you don’t want to happen in 2012, but which probably will”

  1. Regarding Armageddon Summer, North Korea, India and Pakistan have all tested nuclear weapons, but Israel and Iran haven’t (although they are both producing plutonium all the time due to neutron capture in U-238 in their nuclear reactors). So it could be that North Korea will be the first to use them, but the Middle East. (America never tested the simple Hiroshima nuclear bomb before dropping it; the Trinity test was for the complicated implosion bomb dropped later on Nagasaki, not the Mk1 Hiroshima gun assembly weapon.) So nuclear weapons have been used in conflict without any prior nuclear test. South Africa stockpiled Hiroshima type nuclear weapons for a while but never tested them.

    What’s shocking is that ever since 1945, a wide range of pressure groups have falsely exaggerated the effects of the nuclear weapons in a way that fosters the illusion that Hiroshima and Nagasaki were typical or template explosions, despite the fact that the city centres were over 40% area covered with overcrowded wood frame houses, each with a charcoal brazier and plenty of paper screens, bamboo furnishings, etc. Colonel Tibbets who dropped the bomb on Hiroshima explains in his autobiography “The Tibbets Story” that he was well aware of the incendiary problems because they had firebombed all the German cities and 93 Japanese ones. The secret 1947 U.S. Strategic Bombing Survey report number 92 on Hiroshima, volume 2, gives a survey of 1,000 survivors who said the firestorm was due to overturned charcoal braziers in wooden houses. (The heat flash only set black coloured blackout curtains on fire out to 2500 feet radius from ground zero, white colours reflect the heat and don’t ignite, and nobody puts blackout curtains in their windows nowadays!) Problem is, it was secret, and the unclassified report (issued in 1946) obfuscated, making it appear as if the heat set alight the wood directly (it can’t, as the heat flash is so brief that wood just ablates slightly, creating a smokescreen with no sustained fire). City centre buildings today are a lot tougher and less inflammable than the wooden housing slums of Hiroshima, so it is entirely possible for people to survive. 75% survived in Hiroshima despite the complete surprise there and the firestorm afterwards.

    Instead of discussing the facts rationally, the politicians prefer groupthink “consensus” in which the facts are removed from public debate by secrecy classification. This was all very well to help deter Stalin, but bearing in mind the fact Russia later tested more powerful weapons than America (up to 50 Mt), there is little military case for keeping the facts secret today, it’s purely a matter of political correctness:

    1. Keep the basic facts secret/limited in distribution to government contractors only (in manuals like EM-1, Capabilities of Nuclear Weapons). Issue to the public only non-quantitative or vague obfuscation that omits hard evidence from Hiroshima and nuclear tests. Keep everything secret.

    2. Allow the public “debate” on civil defence to begin and end with Hiroshima firestorm photo propaganda and lies by Rotblat/CND being a genuine basis for public education. (Remember CND’s 1982 book “Civil Defence: The Cruellest Confidence Trick”, Duncan Campbell’s “War Plan UK”, and SANA – Scientists Against Nuclear Arms – who in 1992 after the cold war became “Scientists for Global Responsibility” fighting natural climate change with hot air.)

    3. Appease aggressors using Chamberlain’s argument in the 1930s, that if we don’t appease aggressors we will all cease to exist, we’re doing God’s work by shaking Hitler’s hand and talking peace with him, because peace at any price to the Jews is ethical, and Churchill is immoral.

    The Americans are starting to face the truth that Glasstone’s Cold War book on nuclear weapons effects is not an adequate basis for the terrorist and jihad threat today:

    “Appeasement seldom works in the long term … appeasement will not prevent every possible attack.”

    – Robert C. Harney, “Inaccurate Prediction of Nuclear Weapons Effects and Possible Adverse Influences on Nuclear Terrorism Preparedness”, Homeland Security Affairs, volume V, No. 3, September 2009, pp. 1-19 (quotation from page 18)

    “If all residents in the hazardous fallout region adopt a shelter-in-place strategy, the total number of acute radiation casualties is estimated to be ~ 3,600, as compared to ~ 100,000 casualties if all are outdoors and unsheltered. Some further reductions in casualties can be realized if those in the poorest shelters transit to better shelters soon after the detonation.”

    – Larry D. Brandt and Ann S. Yoshimura, Analysis of Sheltering and Evacuation Strategies for a Chicago Nuclear Detonation Scenario, Sandia National Laboratories, Report SAND2011-6720, August 2011, page 5.

    “We have shown that common estimates of weapon effects that calculate a ‘radius’ for thermal radiation are clearly misleading for surface bursts in urban environments. In many cases only a few unshadowed vertical surfaces, a small fraction of the area within a thermal damage radius, receive the expected heat flux.”

    – R. E. Marrs, W. C. Moss, and B. Whitlock, Thermal Radiation from Nuclear Detonations in Urban Environments, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, UCRL-TR-231593, June 2007, page 11.

    Dr G. Andrew Mickley explains how workers who returned to Nagasaki after surviving at Hiroshima were able to use their experience to survive the second nuclear explosion, and to help others to prepare, in his paper “Psychological Factors in Nuclear Warfare”, Chapter 8 in Textbook of Military Medicine; Part I, Warfare, Weaponry, and the Casualty; Volume 2: Medical Consequences of Nuclear Warfare, U.S. Army, 1989, pp. 184-5:

    “The benefits of training are confirmed by the remarkable experiences of nine persons who survived the Hiroshima bombing and then fled to Nagasaki in time for the second atomic bomb. They remembered very well what they had done that allowed them to live, and they quickly instructed others in Nagasaki: “Yamaguchi’s lecture on A-bomb precautions, he pointed out later, was not lost upon his colleagues. With the young designer’s words still fresh in their minds [on 9 August 1945, in Nagasaki] they leaped for the cover of desks and tables. “As a result,” said Yamaguchi, “my section staff suffered the least in that building. In other sections there was a heavy toll of serious injuries from flying glass.” (Reference: Robert Trumbull, Nine who survived Hiroshima and Nagasaki, New York: E. P. Dutton and Co., 1957.)” – http://glasstone.blogspot.com/

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